There’s an obviously dangerous intersection right outside my work.

Cars come whizzing over a hill at 55 mph+, and I have to try to quickly merge across three lanes to make a turn.

Even with the obvious danger, let’s say that the odds of getting in an accident on a given morning are something like 1 in 1,000. If you’re just thinking about one commute, it’s highly unlikely that it’ll be a problem.

But things get interesting when the timeline changes.

I go to work more than 200 days per year. That means it will be less than 5 years before I make that turn 1,000 times.

Thus, given the 1 in 1,000 odds of getting in an accident, if I take that route to work every single morning, it’s actually more likely than not that I’ll get in an accident sometime over the next five years.

For me, that’s enough reason to take a different route (not to mention the stress and inevitable traffic backups that also come from this situation).

But how often do we fail to recognize the way odds and recurring events work?

-Brandon