In theory, an airline should let a last-minute passenger jump on a flight for next to nothing. Particularly if the passenger doesn’t have to check a bag.

Even getting $20 is better than sending an empty seat across the country, right?

That would be true if the flight was a one-time situation, but it’s not.

The airlines know that consumers are watching. If we had the chance to buy a cheap last-minute ticket once, our buying behavior would begin to change. Rather than locking in our seat weeks, or months, in advance at a higher rate, we would wait.

Suddenly, the whole equation would change. More and more people would wait to book last-minute, meaning that airlines would have a lesser ability to predict their utilization and fewer people would book flights that they ultimately don’t take (which leads to pure profit for the airline.)

So sure, if you look at the short-term it might make sense for the airlines to make a quick buck on their empty seats.

But the story is different once you realize they’re playing an infinite game.

-Brandon